Comprehensive Summary
This study evaluates three forms of the Fractured Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) to estimate the 10-year risk for a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) or hip fracture. Of the data collected on 9,423 randomly selected women and men involved in the CaMos nationwide prospective cohort study, 1787 unique individuals were included based on availability of data for age, sex, BMI, X-rays, previous and parental hip fractures, smoking status, glucocorticoid use, rheumatoid arthritis, secondary osteoporosis, and alcohol use. FRAX scores were calculated from this group of participants using no T-scores (FRAX-NoT), T-scores derived from X-rays using the Rho-Algorithm (FRAX-Rho), and T-scores calculated from Femoral Neck Bone Mineral Density (FN BMD) measured by Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) (FRAX-DXA). These FRAX indices then classified subjects as either low, moderate, or high MOF risk. Participants were observed over 10 years for either the occurrence of an MOF, hip fracture, or death. C-index, a measurement for the power of a risk predictive model, was calculated for each of the different FRAX indices when compared to the actual data (higher C-index values indicate better performance). For MOF fractures, the C-indices were 0.73 (0.67–0.79) for FRAX-NoT, 0.76 (0.71–0.82) for FRAX-Rho, and 0.77 (0.72–0.83) for FRAX-DXA. For hip fractures, the corresponding values were 0.80 (0.72–0.88), 0.82 (0.73–0.90), and 0.85 (0.79–0.91).
Outcomes and Implications
Fracture risk calculation using DXA is accurate but costly and time-consuming. The FRAX-Rho algorithm was designed to approximate FRAX-DXA risk estimates while outperforming the currently available T-score–absent calculations (FRAX-NoT). This will enable physicians to assess, treat, and monitor patients more accurately. As a result, the global cost of medical treatment for MOF/hip fractures would decrease, while the lifespan of the elderly population, where such injuries are life-threatening, would increase. Although FRAX-Rho performed well in the studied population, the authors recommend further validation across diverse populations before clinical implementation.